Strategic resource planning of endoscopy services using hybrid modelling for future demographic and policy change

For strategic planning of healthcare services, understanding and accounting for future demand can support resource management. A hybrid modelling approach is well-placed to address these issues using demand projections with simulation for capacity planning. We present a methodology which conceptualises each stage as a collaborative activity in a strategic process. Medium-to-long term demand is uncertain, and depends upon internal and external factors. Our novel demand projections use both drivers of internal demand, and environmental scanning to identify external influences on demand. These create demand trajectories for each of three procedures that are used with discrete-event simulation to inform strategic planning for endoscopic diagnostic services. The study involved collaboration with a major Healthcare Trust in England, and demonstrates the applicability of our methodology to support strategic change at the regional service level by aligning external demand with internal resource planning.